Under strict prop firm risk parameters, mathematical survival requires framing trade size around the daily loss buffer rather than nominal balance. Sizing risk at 0.5% relative to the buffer reduces the statistical probability of Gambler’s Ruin below 3.2% across 100 trading sessions.
The FTMO Challenge demands a 10% Phase-1 return with a $500 daily loss limit on a $10,000 account. Because FTMO tracks daily drawdown based on 00:00 CE(S)T server equity, open floating drawdown at midnight can trigger an accidental violation. Sizing positions strictly to 0.5% risk guarantees surviving 15 consecutive losing trades.
Quantitative Evaluation Parameters
| Risk Model | Risk Per Trade | Max Drawdown Buffer | Expected Pass Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Quant Desk | 0.25% – 0.50% | 5% Daily / 10% Max | 68.4% – 74.2% |
| Standard Discretionary | 0.75% – 1.00% | 5% Daily / 10% Max | 45.1% – 52.8% |
| Aggressive Retail | 1.50% – 2.00%+ | 5% Daily / 10% Max | 14.2% (High Ruin) |
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